Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 0.008572 0.009676 0.010870 0.012258 0.013826 0.015544 0.017570
2025-12-14 0.006673 0.008158 0.009896 0.012083 0.014764 0.017948 0.022023
2025-12-21 0.005516 0.007121 0.009104 0.011740 0.015158 0.019449 0.025259
2025-12-28 0.004993 0.006740 0.008999 0.012140 0.016403 0.022007 0.029960
2026-01-04 0.004533 0.006360 0.008816 0.012366 0.017383 0.024245 0.034389
2026-01-11 0.004183 0.006075 0.008709 0.012651 0.018427 0.026615 0.039171
2026-01-18 0.003781 0.005667 0.008375 0.012559 0.018893 0.028170 0.042880
2026-01-25 0.003464 0.005344 0.008123 0.012546 0.019448 0.029867 0.046911
2026-02-01 0.003143 0.004982 0.007773 0.012341 0.019671 0.031055 0.050226
2026-02-08 0.002929 0.004762 0.007618 0.012413 0.020319 0.032930 0.054765
2026-02-15 0.002703 0.004501 0.007372 0.012312 0.020665 0.034332 0.058623
2026-02-22 0.002575 0.004390 0.007353 0.012576 0.021626 0.036802 0.064466
2026-03-01 0.002330 0.004063 0.006959 0.012181 0.021451 0.037373 0.067131
2026-03-08 0.002146 0.003826 0.006696 0.011992 0.021615 0.038537 0.070945
2026-03-15 0.001958 0.003564 0.006368 0.011653 0.021475 0.039141 0.073772
2026-03-22 0.001901 0.003533 0.006443 0.012049 0.022702 0.042295 0.081611
2026-03-29 0.001822 0.003456 0.006429 0.012274 0.023622 0.044950 0.088716
2026-04-05 0.001758 0.003400 0.006445 0.012557 0.024672 0.047923 0.096692
2026-04-12 0.001650 0.003251 0.006277 0.012466 0.024980 0.049485 0.101964
2026-04-19 0.001561 0.003131 0.006154 0.012453 0.025439 0.051371 0.108051
2026-04-26 0.001457 0.002974 0.005945 0.012249 0.025491 0.052436 0.112502
2026-05-03 0.001391 0.002889 0.005874 0.012321 0.026116 0.054717 0.119731
2026-05-10 0.001312 0.002771 0.005726 0.012220 0.026367 0.056232 0.125414